Nick Bostrom's Simulation Argument

1. Simulated people would be conscious (p > 0)
2. There is a non-trivial number of civilizations that reach the post-human stage (w > 0)
3. A non-trivial proportion of post-human civilizations create simulated world (sim-pop > 0)
4. Believing in the Self-Indication Principle, there is a possibility that you are simulated (percentage of sim = probability you are a sim)

• $\therefore$ you probably are a simulation

Mathematical Backing

With:

• p as the percentage of civilizations that reach a Post-human stage
• w as the average number of simulated worlds created by each Posthuman Simulation
• sim-pop average number of people per simulated world
• base-pop average number of people per non-simulated world Note, the pecentage of people simulated as opposed to non-simulated is: $\frac{\text{\# of sims}}{\text{(\# of sims) + (\# of non-sims)}}$ This is equivalent to: $\frac{\text{p(post-human)}\times \text{w}\times \text{sim-pop}}{(\text{p(post-human)}\times \text{w}\times \text{sim-pop})+\text{base-pop}}$

Implications

If we reject this argument then:

• If we reject premise 1, this means that we probably wont react a Post-human state. (See Doomsday Argument)
• If we reject premise 2, this means that we can probably never make simulations
• If we reject premise 2, this could mean that Post-human civilizations do not have interest in creating simulations
• If we reject premise 3, this could mean that simulation worlds could never have consciousness. Populated by Zombies
• If we reject premise 3, we reject Self-Indication Principle. This is quite controversial